Energy crisis sparked by Ukraine war to speed up green transition -IEA
As a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this year, the drop in fossil fuel exports from this country will affect the energy landscape around the world for decades to come. In this way, it can contribute to accelerating a green energy transition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
It is acknowledged that the reduction in Russian oil, natural gas, and coal supplies will negatively affect the economy. In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA remains committed to an environmental best-case scenario, one in which no new fossil fuel projects are necessary for the near future.
An IEA report released in February found that the global energy crisis is causing profound and long-lasting changes contributing to the shift toward a more sustainable and secure energy system.
According to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has profoundly affected energy markets and policies. This effect will continue to have a profound effect for decades to come.
There has been a lot of change in the energy world right before our eyes. This is because governments around the globe have come together to form a global response that promises to lead to a cleaner, more affordable, and more secure energy system. This is a turning point that will prove historic and definitive.
Short-term gaps created by reducing fossil fuel supplies from Russia will need to be filled from elsewhere.
The strongest candidates are projects with “short lead times,” which rapidly bring oil and gas supplies to market without locking in dependency.
According to the International Energy Agency, in the next few years, there will be an increase in clean energy investment by over $2 trillion. This is half of what it is at present. However, the IEA predicts that the international energy markets will undergo a profound reorientation in the 2020s as countries adjust to the disruption of Russian-European energy flows.
In its climate-friendly Net Zero Emissions scenario, the IEA last year shocked the energy industry with its claim that it would be impossible to create new oil and gas fields beyond 2021 because of lower demand and an increase in low-emissions fuels.
PEAKS
According to the International Energy Agency, the country is the world’s second-biggest exporter of fossil fuels, behind Russia. The country will never regain its prior share in the global energy supply mix due to its invasion of Ukraine.
IEA project that Russia’s share of international energy trade will decline to 13% by 2030 from about 20% in 2021, as opposed to about 30%.
The IEA also stated that for the first time in the history of its modeling, the demand for every type of fossil fuel would peak or plateau. This will be the first time the agency has started modeling.
By 2025, it is predicted that the global emissions of fossil fuels that contribute to global climate change will peak. This is because coal usage will be reduced within a few years, natural gas demand will plateau by 2030, and oil demand will plateau by 2025 before falling soon.
“The actions taken by Russia will have an impact on natural gas demand, as a result of which the rapid growth seen in the past few years is coming to an end,” the IEA said, pointing out that there will be a drop in global gas demand of less than 5% between now and 2030 due to Russia’s actions.
Source: Reuters
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